Tag Archive for: source test

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The Source Test Card

You’ve read a headline, felt sure of it, and found out later there was nothing behind it. Nobody lied to you, exactly. You just took the claim at face value because checking felt like too much work.

This card makes checking quick. It starts with one move that catches most bait before you click: say in one plain sentence what you’re being told, what happened and who did it. If you can’t, you haven’t been told anything yet.

Then three questions we use on this channel before trusting any claim. Stake: who gains if you believe it? Source: how do they know? Steelman: what’s the strongest honest case on the other side? Each one comes with what to look for and the warning signs that mean keep checking.

The full walk-through, with the research behind it, is in the video.

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Tag Archive for: source test

How Political Ads Manipulate You (Both Parties Do It)

If you’re tired of election ads and you suspect both sides are working you, you’re right. Political ads on every side use the same seven tricks. Below is each one, with examples from both parties or from neither, so you can watch the trick instead of the team.

I spent 30 years in marketing, and political ads use the same toolbox with higher stakes. At the end there’s one check that catches all seven, and it works best on the ads you agree with.

1. The dark makeover

The other candidate shows up in grainy black and white, often in slow motion, with tense music underneath. The candidate paying for the ad gets color and sunshine.

This has been tested. In 1998, during a governor’s race in Massachusetts, researchers showed voters the same negative ad in two versions. One was plain. The other added grainy black-and-white images and tense, clashing music. People who saw the dark version were 26 points more likely to back the candidate who ran the ad. It’s a both-sides study by design: both candidates were from the same party, and the researchers swapped their names between versions.

The move: watch the ad on mute and notice the color. Ask what it would feel like with normal footage and no music.

2. The clipped quote

Five seconds from a 40-minute speech, chosen so the person sounds like they meant something they didn’t.

The Washington Post’s fact checkers have a name for this one: isolation. They describe it as sharing a brief clip from a longer video in a way that tells a story that isn’t what actually happened. Ads on both sides do it every election cycle.

The move: find the minute before and the minute after, or longer, and watch that.

3. The vote that wasn’t

“She voted against veterans.” “He voted against lower drug prices.” Sometimes that’s true. Often the vote was on one enormous bill with hundreds of things packed into it.

Here’s a real one. At the end of 2020, Congress passed a spending bill that ran 5,593 pages, the longest bill it has ever passed. It had COVID relief, a year of government funding, a ban on most surprise medical bills, and much more. Members of both parties voted against it. Any one of those no votes could be turned into “voted against” almost anything in those pages.

The move: find the bill and ask what else was in it.

4. The midnight deadline

“Final notice.” “Give before midnight and your gift will be tripled.”

A team at Princeton read more than 100,000 campaign emails from more than 2,800 senders across the political spectrum. The typical sender used a manipulative trick in about four in ten of its emails, and almost every sender used them at least sometimes. Real reporting deadlines do exist, so not every date is invented.

The move: give when you’ve decided to give. There’ll always be another midnight tomorrow.

5. “Paid for by”

Every ad has to tell you who paid for it. The rule says the group has to give its name and contact information. It doesn’t make most groups tell you who gave them the money. So the name at the bottom often sounds like something everyone agrees with, like “Citizens for a Better Tomorrow” or “Americans for Common Sense.”

Money that hides its donors this way is called dark money, and both sides use it. In 2012, an estimated 86 percent of it was spent by conservative groups. In 2020, groups helping Democrats spent more than twice as much as groups helping Republicans.

The move: search the group’s name with the word “donors.” If you can’t find out who’s behind it, that tells you something too.

6. The borrowed badge

“Endorsed by firefighters.” “Teachers support her.” That could mean a national organization. It could also mean one local chapter, or a few people in a photo. The ad often doesn’t say which.

This is fine when it’s the full organization and the ad names it.

The move: ask which group, and how many.

7. The fear close

If they win, you lose. Both parties have run this ad for as long as there’s been television.

In 1964, a Democratic ad showed a little girl pulling petals off a flower while a voice counted down to a nuclear explosion. It ran once as a paid ad and ended with “The stakes are too high for you to stay home.” Twenty years later, a Republican ad showed a grizzly bear walking through the woods with a heartbeat under the music. It ended with “Isn’t it smart to be as strong as the bear? If there is a bear?” One ad from each party, and both run on fear.

The move: ask exactly what would happen, and how. A real threat comes with a specific answer.

The check that catches all seven

I call it the Source Test, and the first move is the one from trick number one: watch it on mute. Then ask three questions.

Stake: who paid for this, and what do they get if I believe it?

Source: who checked it? Here’s something most people don’t know. TV stations aren’t allowed to edit or refuse a candidate’s own ad, even if it’s false. Nobody fact-checked it before it aired.

Steelman: what would the other side say this ad left out?

And here’s the real test. Run it on an ad for the side you already agree with. If you can only catch the tricks on one side, the tricks are still working on you.

Questions people ask

Do political ads have to be true?

Not in the way most people assume. Under federal law, TV stations aren’t allowed to edit or refuse a candidate’s own ad, even if it’s false, so nobody fact-checks it before it airs. That rule covers ads from a candidate’s own campaign. Ads from outside groups are a different case.

What is dark money in politics?

It’s political spending by groups that don’t have to say who gave them the money. An ad must name the group that paid, but most groups needn’t name donors. Both sides use it: an estimated 86 percent was spent by conservative groups in 2012, and Democratic-aligned groups outspent Republican-aligned ones more than two to one in 2020.

Why are political attack ads in black and white?

Grainy black-and-white footage and tense music make the other candidate feel threatening. In a 1998 Massachusetts experiment, voters who saw the dark version of the same negative ad were 26 points more likely to back the candidate who ran it. To check an ad, watch it on mute and imagine it with normal footage.

How can you tell if a political ad is misleading?

Run three questions. Who paid for this, and what do they get if I believe it? Who checked it? What would the other side say it left out? Then watch for the common tricks: grainy footage, short clips from long speeches, “voted against” claims about huge bills, and group names that sound like something everyone agrees with.

Why do campaign emails say “final notice” or “deadline tonight”?

Because urgency gets people to give. A Princeton team that read more than 100,000 campaign emails from 2,800-plus senders across the spectrum found the typical sender used a manipulative trick in about four in ten emails. Real reporting deadlines exist, but you can give whenever you’ve decided to.

Sources

  • Brader, T. (2005). Striking a responsive chord: How political ads motivate and persuade voters by appealing to emotions. American Journal of Political Science 49(2), 388–405.
  • The Washington Post Fact Checker (June 25, 2019). Seeing isn’t believing: The Fact Checker’s guide to manipulated video.
  • Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 (H.R. 133). Page count per the U.S. Senate Historical Office.
  • Mathur, A., Wang, A., Schwemmer, C., Hamin, M., Stewart, B. M. & Narayanan, A. (2023). Manipulative tactics are the norm in political emails. Big Data & Society 10(1).
  • Federal Election Commission. Advertising and disclaimers; 11 CFR 110.11.
  • OpenSecrets. Dark money spending by political orientation (2012, 2020).
  • The Living Room Candidate, Museum of the Moving Image. “Peace, Little Girl (Daisy)” (1964) and “Bear” (1984).
  • Communications Act of 1934, Section 315 (47 U.S.C. 315).
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Why You Buy More When You’re Sad (Impulse Buying Psychology)

You’ve probably done your own version of this. It’s been a rough week, you go out for one thing, and you come home with three. And the person who sold them to you could see that rough week on you before you’d noticed it yourself.

That isn’t a hunch. In one experiment, people who had just watched a sad scene from an old movie offered almost four times as much for a plain water bottle as people who had watched a calm film about a coral reef. It was the same bottle. The only thing that changed was their mood.

I spent 30 years in marketing, and a big part of that job was knowing what mood the customer would be in. Here’s what that looks like from the other side of the counter, and what you can do about it.

The one idea: a hot state

When a feeling gets strong enough, it starts doing some of your thinking for you. I call that a hot state.

The clearest test of it I know comes from Amsterdam. Researchers asked about 200 office workers to pick a free snack they’d get a week later, either fruit or something like a candy bar. Some chose right before lunch, when they were hungry, and some right after, when they were full. The snack was a week away, so how hungry they were that day shouldn’t have mattered. It did. The hungry group picked a lot more junk food.

That’s the catch with a hot state. While you’re in it, you assume you’ll feel the same way later. And anyone selling to you would much rather you decide now, while the feeling is still running the show.

Mood 1: Sad, lonely or worn down

Back to the water bottle. Here’s the honest part: that first study was small, only about 30 people. Ten years later, the same lab ran it again with new people. The effect showed up again, but it was smaller. So sadness does make people pay more, just not four times more every time. The researchers’ explanation is that sadness turns your attention inward, and buying something feels like a way to fix the feeling.

What gives it away: you say more than you meant to. “It’s been a hard year,” to someone who only asked if you needed help finding anything. You stay and chat longer than you need to, because you’re buying company as much as the product. Romance scammers build a whole business on this, and so do a lot of the “opportunities” that show up right after a funeral or a layoff.

In fairness, plenty of people who notice you’re down are just being kind. More on where the line is below.

Mood 2: Angry or feeling wronged

Researchers have found that people who tend to run angry expect things to go their way. They rate risks as smaller and are more willing to gamble. A large replication with almost 800 people found the same pattern.

What gives it away: you walk in with a grievance. “I’m so done with my current provider.” You tell the story of how the last company ripped you off, and what you want most is for someone to take your side.

Here’s how it gets used. The pitch opens by agreeing with you. “Oh, those guys? They do that to everybody.” Now the salesperson is on your team, and you’re about to make a big switch while you’re still mad. Sometimes you really were ripped off, and switching is the right call. Just make that call after you’ve cooled off, not while you’re still on the phone with the person who agreed with you.

Mood 3: Excited or in a hurry

This one has a tell on the seller’s side too. The friendly small talk before a pitch (“How’s your day going? Any big plans this weekend?”) is partly there to find out whether you’re in a good mood.

What gives it away: you lean in, you’re nodding before they finish the sentence, and you ask how soon you can have it before you ask how much it costs. A skilled salesperson keeps that excitement up on purpose, because the feeling has an expiration date. Sleep on it, and the hot state cools off, and so does the sale. That’s why the deposit “to hold your spot” shows up right when you’re most excited.

Real deadlines exist, and sometimes the excitement is right. The check is simple: was the deadline there before they met you?

The scam manual, in one line

At the end of 2025, Reuters reported on two handbooks recovered from raided scam compounds in the Philippines. They’re step-by-step guides to building a fake online relationship and then moving the person into a fake investment. On day one, the plan is to share “emotional experiences.” Money doesn’t come up for days. One line sums up the whole strategy:

“As long as the emotions are in place, the client’s money will naturally follow.”

In other words, they read your mood first, and the pitch comes second. Nobody can read your mind, and they don’t need to. Your mood is showing, and they’re trained to look for it.

The fix: name the weather

You beat them to it. Before you make any decision that costs money, check your mood the way you’d check the weather before you leave the house. Say what mood you’re in, out loud, in one plain sentence. “I’m sad and I’m shopping.” “I’m angry and I’m about to switch.” “I’m excited and they want a deposit.”

It sounds too simple to work, but there’s decent evidence it helps. In one study, people who were afraid of spiders spent time close to a big, live tarantula, and some of them were asked to describe what they were feeling out loud. A week later, facing a different spider in a different room, those people got less physically worked up than the people who had tried to talk themselves out of the fear or distract themselves. They still said they felt just as scared. Their bodies just didn’t react as much.

Putting the feeling into words gives you a little distance from it. Once you’ve named it, you can ask the question the seller is hoping you won’t: would tomorrow-me say yes to this? If you can’t answer that, say “I’ll get back to you tomorrow,” and let tomorrow-you decide.

Naming the weather is also the first move of the Source Test, the check we use on this channel for anything that wants your money or your trust. Stake: who gets what if I say yes today? Source: is there anything behind this deal besides how I feel right now? Steelman: giving the other side a fair hearing. If I still want it tomorrow, maybe it really is a good deal.

Where the line is

Here’s the strongest argument against all of this: everybody reads moods. Every good doctor does it, and so does every good friend. A salesperson who notices you’re upset and says, “Come back next week,” is using the same skill for the opposite purpose. What matters is what they do with what they see. Do they slow you down, or hurry you up?

I’ve been on the other side of this. Right after the holidays, I ran campaigns built on one idea: you didn’t get what you really wanted, so take the gift money and buy it yourself. When gas prices spiked and people were furious at the pump, I sold commercial electric vans into that anger. The vans were a good product, but the anger is what got me the meeting. And every spring, when tax refunds landed, I pushed a luxury item nobody needed. I never had to read anyone’s mind. The calendar told me what mood people would be in.

You can’t hide your mood, and you don’t have to. You just have to notice it before anyone else does, and say it out loud.

Questions people ask

Why do I buy things when I’m sad?

Sadness tends to turn your attention inward, and buying something can feel like a way to fix the feeling. In one small study, people who had just watched a sad film offered almost four times as much for the same water bottle. A later rerun by the same lab found the effect again, but smaller.

What is a “hot state”?

It’s any moment when a feeling is strong enough to do some of your thinking for you. While you’re in one, you assume you’ll feel the same way later. In one study, hungry office workers picked far more junk food for a snack they wouldn’t get for a week.

Does being angry make you take more risks?

It tends to. People who often run angry rate risks as smaller and are more willing to gamble, and a large replication with almost 800 people found the same pattern. Salespeople use it by agreeing with your anger, then pitching a big switch while you’re still upset.

How do scammers use emotions?

They read your mood before they ask for anything. A scam manual recovered from a raided compound in the Philippines, reported by Reuters, tells workers to share “emotional experiences” on day one and wait days before mentioning money. Its summary line: “As long as the emotions are in place, the client’s money will naturally follow.”

How do you stop impulse buying?

Before you spend, name the weather: say your mood out loud in one plain sentence, like “I’m sad and I’m shopping.” Then ask whether tomorrow-you would say yes. If you can’t answer, say “I’ll get back to you tomorrow” and let tomorrow-you decide.

Sources

  • Cryder, C. E., Lerner, J. S., Gross, J. J., & Dahl, R. E. (2008). Misery is not miserly: Sad and self-focused individuals spend more. Psychological Science 19(6), 525–530.
  • Garg, N., Williams, L. A., & Lerner, J. S. (2018). The misery-is-not-miserly effect revisited: Replication despite opportunities for compensatory consumption. PLOS ONE 13(6).
  • Read, D., & van Leeuwen, B. (1998). Predicting hunger: The effects of appetite and delay on choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 76(2), 189–205.
  • Lerner, J. S., & Keltner, D. (2001). Fear, anger, and risk. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81(1), 146–159.
  • Lu, Efendić & Feldman (2025). Registered replication of Lerner & Keltner (2001), n = 780. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
  • Kircanski, K., Lieberman, M. D., & Craske, M. G. (2012). Feelings into words: Contributions of language to exposure therapy. Psychological Science 23(10), 1086–1091.
  • McPherson, P., Huang, H., & Levine, A. (Dec 31, 2025). A scammer’s guide: How cybercriminals plot to rob a target in a week. Reuters.
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Why Empty Slogans Feel True (And a 10-Second Test to Catch Them)

I’m going to go out on a limb here and assume you’ve seen yard signs with phrases that have stuck in your head well after you saw them. The thing is, you didn’t set out to remember the slogans, but you drove past the sign a few times on the way to the store or work, and now it lives in your head. Nothing’s wrong with your memory. That’s how repetition works, and anyone who writes slogans for a living knows exactly what they’re doing.

Why hearing a slogan again makes it feel true

Let’s go back to 1977, when three researchers showed people a list of statements, some true and some false, on three different occasions over several weeks. The statements people had seen before were rated as more true each time they read them, even though nothing new had been added. They were simply familiar.

Psychologists call this the illusory truth effect. A 2010 review of 51 studies found the same pattern across the research. And a 2015 study from Duke found that repetition raised how true a statement felt even when people already knew it was false. I mean, knowing better helped, but it didn’t make anyone immune.

The detail campaigns care about most comes from a 2021 study. The biggest jump happens between the first time you hear something and the second. After that, each repeat of the phrase adds a little less. So basically, the work is done early.

The three moves behind a slogan

If repetition does the work, then a slogan’s entire job is to get repeated. There are three ingredients that surface time and again.

The beat. Short words, rhythm, and rhyme. In a 2000 study, people rated “woes unite foes” as more accurate than “woes unite enemies.” Same meaning. One rhymes. But when the researchers told people to separate how a saying sounds from what it says, most of that advantage went away. Noticing the beat is a defense on its own.

The verbless claim. Take “Sharper minds, safer streets.” It sounds like a principle, but there’s nothing in it you could check, and a claim you can’t check is hard to argue with. History has plenty of these from both parties. “I Like Ike” (Republicans, 1952) and “All the Way with LBJ” (Democrats, 1964) both won, both rhymed, and neither contained a policy.

The chorus. Often it starts with one person. The candidate says it, then the surrogates say it in the same words, then the lawn and billboard signs display it, and then the hashtags start popping up on social posts. A 2007 study found that one person repeating an opinion three times made it seem nearly as widely held as three different people saying it once. One voice, repeated, can sound like a crowd.

The tool: the Slogan Translation Test

Step 00: translate it. Say the slogan as a full sentence and ask four things. Who does it? What happens? By when? Paid for how? If you can’t do it in ten seconds, you haven’t been handed a position. You’ve been handed a feeling.

Then run steps 01 through 03, the Source Test. Stake: what would have to be true for the idea behind it to be a good one? Source: who wrote it, and why is everyone using the exact same words? Steelman: what’s the strongest honest version of the idea, said without the slogan?

The honest part

Look, slogans exist for a reason. A real policy doesn’t fit on a bumper sticker, and a good slogan can be an honest compression of a real position. Rhyme isn’t evil, and repetition helps true things stick too. The test doesn’t ask whether a slogan is good or bad. It asks whether there’s a real sentence underneath it.

So the next time four perfect words show up on a sign, don’t start by asking whether you agree. Translate them first.

Think Sharper. Stay Sovereign.

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